October – December Integrating Machine Learning-Based Soil Erosion Susceptibility Mapping with Ecosystem Restoration and Climate Adaptation Planning in the Ugam–Chatkal Mountain Ecosystem, Uzbekistan.
Received: 2026-10-09
Published: 2026-10-12
Abstract
Identifying areas susceptible to soil erosion can support ecosystem protection, but restora-
tion planning also requires evidence of existing degradation and local ecological conditions. This
paper proposes a methodological framework linking machine learning-based soil erosion suscepti-
bility mapping with ecosystem restoration and climate adaptation planning in the Ugam–Chatkal
mountain ecosystem, Uzbekistan. The framework integrates geographic information systems, remote
sensing, terrain variables, soil laboratory measurements, erosion observations, and climate informa-
tion. It comprises spatial data preparation, model development, spatial validation, and the assessment
of management priorities. Susceptibility maps are considered alongside vegetation condition and
field evidence to distinguish areas requiring preventive protection, active restoration, or additional
investigation. Climate adaptation is addressed through the proposed assessment of historical climate
variability and future scenarios, with attention to uncertainty and model transferability. Two con-
ceptual diagrams illustrate the research workflow and management decision framework. The paper
presents a proposed approach rather than completed modelling results. Its intended contribution is a
transparent basis for selecting restoration priorities and designing subsequent field assessment and
monitoring.
Keywords
List of references
-
Borrelli, P., et al. (2021). Soil erosion modelling: A global review and statistical analysis. Science of the Total Environment, 780, 146494. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146494. PMC
-
Poggio, L., de Sousa, L. M., Batjes, N. H., Heuvelink, G. B. M., Kempen, B., Ribeiro, E., Rossiter, D. (2021). SoilGrids 2.0: Producing soil information for the globe with quantified spatial uncertainty. SOIL, 7, 217–240. https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-7-217-2021. soil.copernicus.org
-
Ludwig, M., Bahlmann, J., Pebesma, E., Meyer, H. (2022). Developing transferable spatial prediction mod-els: A case study of satellite based landcover mapping. The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, XLIII-B3-2022, 135–141. https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2022-135-2022. isprs-archives.copernicus.org
-
United Nations Environment Programme Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2021). Principles for ecosystem restoration to guide the United Nations Decade 2021–2030. Publication. wedocs.unep.org
-
Juliev, M., Mergili, M., Mondal, I., Nurtaev, B., Pulatov, A., Hübl, J. (2019). Comparative analysis of statistical methods for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Bostanlik District, Uzbekistan. Science of The Total Environment, 653, 801–814.
-
Nelson, C. R., et al. (2024). Standards of practice to guide ecosystem restoration: A contribution to the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration 2021–2030. FAO, SER, IUCN CEM. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc9106en. UN Decade on Restoration
-
United Nations Environment Programme Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2021). Becoming GenerationRestoration: Ecosystem restoration for people, nature and climate. Publication. UNEP - UN Environment Programme
-
Juliev, M., Kholmurodova, M., Gafurova, L., Khoshjanova, K., Khomidov, A., Agzamova, I., . . . Gu-lamkadirova, M. (2024). Modeling of soil erosion based on geospatial techniques and the RUSLE model for the Ugam Chatkal National Park, Uzbekistan. Journal of Geology, Geography and Geoecology, 33(3),485–494. https://doi.org/10.15421/112445
-
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2022). Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press. Report. IPCC
-
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2023). Climate change 2023: Synthesis report. IPCC. https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.
About the Authors
License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.