Том 4 № 1 (2026)
20-41
2026-06-30
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Современные подходы к моделям водного баланса и оценке устойчивости экосистемы Айдаро-Арнасайской озёрной системы: анализ и перспективы

Сурайё Сирожиддинова
Луқмон Самиев
Хумора Жалилова
https://doi.org/10.35938/jhee-2026-1-00002

Получена: 2026-06-18

Опубликована: 2026-06-30

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Аннотация

Айдаро-Арнасайская озёрная система (ААОС) является одной из крупнейших искусственно-природных водно-болотных экосистем Центральной Азии, а её гидрологический режим тесно связан с бассейном реки Сырдарья, Чардаринским водохранилищем, коллекторно-дренажными сетями и климатическими факторами. В последние годы дефицит водных ресурсов, высокая испаряемость, рост минерализации, влияние коллекторно-дренажных вод и изменение климата представляют серьёзную угрозу устойчивости данной экосистемы. В настоящей обзорной статье всесторонне проанализированы национальные и международные исследования, посвящённые моделям водного баланса и оценке устойчивости экосистемы Айдаро-Арнасайской озёрной системы. В исследовании проведено сравнение современных гидрологических моделей SWAT, WEAP, MIKE SHE, MODFLOW и HEC-HMS, технологий ГИС и дистанционного зондирования Земли, индекса NDWI, а также метода расчёта испарения FAO Penman–Monteith. Результаты анализа показали, что испарение является основным компонентом потерь в водном балансе ААОС, а в условиях потепления климата риск минерализации может существенно возрасти. Несмотря на то, что коллекторно-дренажные воды обеспечивают существование озёрной экосистемы, поступление с ними солей и загрязняющих веществ усиливает экологическую нагрузку. Данные ГИС и спутниковых наблюдений продемонстрировали высокую эффективность при выявлении динамики площади водной поверхности озёр, изменений береговой линии и зон засоления. В статье в качестве перспективного направления предложена разработка интегрированной платформы GIS–AI–гидрологического моделирования для Айдаро-Арнасайской озёрной системы.

Ключевые слова

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Об авторах

Сурайё Сирожиддинова
surayyo.sirojiddinova@mail.ru
Охрана окружающей среды и рациональное использование природных ресурсов, Научно-исследовательский институт технологий охраны окружающей среды и природоохранных технологий
Луқмон Самиев
luqmonsamiev@gmail.com
Национальный исследовательский университет «Ташкентский институт инженеров ирригации и механизации сельского хозяйства», Охрана окружающей среды и рациональное использование природных ресурсов, Научно-исследовательский институт технологий охраны окружающей среды и природоохранных технологий
Хумора Жалилова
xumora798911@gmail.com
Национальный исследовательский университет «Ташкентский институт инженеров ирригации и механизации сельского хозяйства»

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Современные подходы к моделям водного баланса и оценке устойчивости экосистемы Айдаро-Арнасайской озёрной системы: анализ и перспективы. (2026). Журнал гидравлической и экологической инженерии, 4(1), 20-41. https://doi.org/10.35938/jhee-2026-1-00002

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