Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026)
20-41
2026-06-30
Open Access

Modern approaches to water balance models and ecosystem stability assessment in the Aydar-Arnasay lake system: analysis and prospects

С.Сирожиддинова
Л.Самиев
Х.Жалилова
https://doi.org/10.35938/jhee-2026-1-00002

Received: 2026-06-18

Published: 2026-06-30

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Abstract

The Aydar-Arnasay lake system (AALS) is one of the largest artificial-natural wetland ecosystems in Central Asia, and its hydrological regime is closely related to the Syrdarya basin, the Chordara reservoir, collector-drainage networks, and climatic factors. In recent years, water resource scarcity, high evaporation, increased mineralization, the impact of collector-drainage waters, and climate change pose a serious threat to the stability of this ecosystem. This review article comprehensively analyzes national and international studies on water balance models and ecosystem stability assessment in the Aydar-Arnasay lake system. The study compared modern hydrological models such as SWAT, WEAP, MIKE SHE, MODFLOW and HEC-HMS, GIS and remote sensing technologies, NDWI index, FAO Penman–Monteith evaporation method. The results of the analysis showed that evaporation is the main loss component in the AALS water balance and the risk of mineralization may increase under climate warming conditions. Although collector-drainage waters ensure the existence of the lake ecosystem, the ingress of salts and pollutants through them increases environmental pressure. GIS and satellite data showed high efficiency in identifying lake surface dynamics, coastal changes and salinization zones. The article proposes the development of an integrated GIS–AI–hydrological modeling platform for AALS as a promising direction.

Keywords

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About the Authors

С.Сирожиддинова
surayyo.sirojiddinova@mail.ru
Environmental Protection and Rational Use of Natural Resources, Research Institute of Environmental Protection and Nature Conservation Technologies
Л.Самиев
luqmonsamiev@gmail.com
National Research University "Tashkent Institute of Irrigation and Agricultural Mechanization Engineers", Environmental Protection and Rational Use of Natural Resources, Research Institute of Environmental Protection and Nature Conservation Technologies
Х.Жалилова
xumora798911@gmail.com
National Research University "Tashkent Institute of Irrigation and Agricultural Mechanization Engineers"

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How to Cite

Modern approaches to water balance models and ecosystem stability assessment in the Aydar-Arnasay lake system: analysis and prospects. (2026). Journal of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, 4(1), 20-41. https://doi.org/10.35938/jhee-2026-1-00002

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